Earnings
Wednesday, November 19th 2025
NVIDIA Earnings Preview: ORATS Data Shows Implied Move in Line With Historical Realized Volatility
The options market is pricing a move consistent with NVIDIA’s realized earnings volatility.
Summary
NVIDIA's upcoming earnings report is expected to see a 7.2% implied move, closely aligning with its historical average of 7.3%. The company has shown significant upside reactions in past reports, with moves exceeding 9% on four occasions. Inter-earnings volatility remains elevated, with implied volatility around 40-42% and historical volatility between 37-46%. Financial trends indicate strong cash flow and profitability, supporting large earnings surprises. Current data suggests NVIDIA is positioned for a typical earnings event, with a stable midpoint for actual outcomes.
NVIDIA reports after the close, and the options market is preparing for a large reaction. ORATS data as noted by Reuters shows a 7.2 percent implied earnings move, which is very close to the 7.3 percent average actual move NVIDIA has delivered across the last twelve earnings events. This alignment is unusually precise for a name that has produced some of the largest single-day earnings reactions in the market over the last three years.
The ORATS Implied vs. Actual Earnings Move chart highlights a wide distribution of realized outcomes. The dominant feature of this series is the size of NVIDIA’s upside reactions. Four of the last twelve reports resulted in moves above 9 percent, including actual reactions of 14.0 percent, 24.4 percent, 16.4 percent, and 9.3 percent. Downside moves have been smaller and less frequent. The realized range spans from negative 8.5 percent to positive 24.4 percent, but with a center of gravity near the 7 percent mark. The current implied move sits directly on that historical midpoint.
Volatility Profile
NVIDIA’s inter-earnings volatility has been elevated for most of the last three years. Inter-earnings implied volatility has generally ranged between 38 percent and 53 percent, while inter-earnings historical volatility has often met or exceeded that range during periods of heavy AI-driven repricing. Recent readings place implied volatility near 40 to 42 percent, with historical volatility near 37 to 46 percent. These levels reflect a balanced relationship between implied and realized volatility. Options are neither discounted nor trading at extremes relative to NVIDIA’s own behavior.
Fundamental Context Beneath the Volatility
A look at NVIDIA’s financial progression helps clarify why realized earnings moves have been consistently large. Over the last twelve quarters:
- Cash to Total Assets increased from roughly 11 percent to nearly 59 percent, a steady build in financial strength.
- Operating Cash to Total Assets followed the same upward path, indicating that free cash flow now drives a larger portion of the balance sheet.
- Gross Profit Ratio expanded from the low 30 percent range to nearly 90 percent, capturing the margin impact of AI-centric product cycles.
- EBIT to Enterprise Value trended higher through most of the period, reflecting stronger operating leverage even as valuation moderated from peak multiples.
- Debt to Equity declined across the series, improving capital structure stability.
These trends provide a foundation for NVIDIA’s recurrent upside earnings surprises. When revenue lifts or guidance shifts, incremental gains compound against a high-margin, cash-efficient operating base.
Earnings and Revision Patterns
NVIDIA’s EPS behavior across the last twelve quarters shows consistent strength. The company beat estimates in most periods, and several cycles saw clusters of upward EPS revisions. Even in quarters with modest beats, the stock often produced significant price reactions because the incremental revenue effects were large relative to fixed operational costs. This contributes directly to the realized volatility profile captured in the ORATS model.
Current Set-Up
The current configuration in ORATS data points to a straightforward interpretation. Today’s implied earnings move closely matches the long-run realized average. The distribution of actual outcomes is wide, but the midpoint is stable. Inter-earnings volatility sits near the levels that typically precede accurate implied pricing. Fundamental trends continue to support large earnings reactions. NVIDIA is, in effect, priced for a normal NVIDIA earnings event.
ORATS will publish a post-earnings analysis once the realized move, implied volatility contraction, skew changes, and forward volatility information are incorporated into the platform
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